Climate Projection

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A climate projection is a simulation of future climate conditioned on assumed pathways for emissions, technology, population and policy, as distinguished from a prediction, which is an unconditional statement about what will happen. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses this distinction deliberately, describing its outputs as projections based on scenarios that may or may not be realized rather than as forecasts. The practical consequence is that projections are difficult to falsify, since an inaccurate outcome can be attributed to the scenario assumptions rather than to the climate model, which is part of what motivates interest in market-based mechanisms that force conditional claims into resolvable form.

The Value of Climate Prediction Markets

Global Crop Yield Forecast Contracts

Hurricane Forecast Contracts

Climate Change’s Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Security