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Tipping Element

Trading Term

A tipping element is a component of the Earth system that could shift into a substantially different state once a threshold is crossed, with self-reinforcing feedbacks tending to sustain the new state. Candidate examples discussed in the literature include the Atlantic overturning circulation, major ice sheets, and permafrost carbon release. The concept is influential in climate discussion but the thresholds are poorly constrained, and assessments generally distinguish between a gradual weakening or decline, which models project with more confidence, and an abrupt state change, which is typically assigned low probability within this century.

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