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Expanding Bullseye Effect

Trading Term

The expanding bullseye effect describes the growth in the amount of property and population situated in the path of natural hazards, and its role in driving rising disaster losses independent of any change in the hazards themselves. Analyses of United States severe thunderstorm losses have attributed the large majority of the upward trend in inflation-adjusted damages to this exposure growth rather than to detectable changes in storm frequency or intensity. The concept is central to interpreting loss statistics, since raw damage totals conflate changes in the hazard with changes in what is exposed to it.

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