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Posted April 29, 2026 at 1:09 pm
Tomorrow’s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a rise from 2.6% to 2.9% in light of significant energy cost pressures that have lifted the critical gauge. Meanwhile, a beat to the upside is more likely than a downside miss, in my opinion, and the consensus agrees as the maximum projected value is at 3.5% across the 41 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters survey. However, in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, the “Yeses” at 2.7% and 2.8% are significantly undervalued at $0.69 and $0.29 in my view, and should be closer to $0.85 and $0.65, in consideration of the fact that an in-line result at 2.9%, or a figure arriving ahead of expectations, would deliver $1.00 back to investors throughout both contracts.
The eurozone’s economic growth is expected to expand at a similar rate of 0.2% or 0.3% in the first quarter as the fourth, meanwhile, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices a result ahead of 0.1% at 81% while a number that fails to exceed 0.4% carries a likelihood of 79%. The 42 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey are at a median of 0.2%, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 0.1% and 0.3%. I like the “No” at 0.4%, which appears undervalued in my opinion, since a statistic of 0.5% is highly unlikely at this juncture considering the continent’s slow activity.
US PCE Inflation Expected Above 3.4%
Tomorrow’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is expected to rise from 2.8% to above 3.4% with a 57% likelihood, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market. A 3.4% result would be the highest figure since the 3.4% in September 2023, however, the consensus estimate is at 3.5%, and that would be the loftiest statistic going back to May of 2023, almost 3 years ago.
The weekly economic index and initial unemployment claims are expected to reflect robust conditions across the US landscape, however, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market projecting a number around 2.53% for the former indicator and roughly 212k for the latter, results that would remain near recent publications.
The Baltic Dry Index is expected to reflect another increase on a month over month basis as the cost of shipping has become more expensive in light of significant energy price pressures. Against this backdrop Interactive Brokers prediction market sees an 88% chance of a result ahead of 2,550 and a 78% probability of a statistic arriving at or below 2,700. For context, the indicator was at 2,148, 2,117, and 1,995 at the ends of January, February and March.
After exceeding 0.8% for nine days in a row and falling below that threshold just one time in 2026, the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices an 84% chance that the level will be exceeded tomorrow. Given tightening financial conditions around the world and mounting inflation, the “Yes” here is undervalued in my opinion and should cost around $0.94.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 29, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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