Forecasters Expect Initial Claims Under 220K, Another WEI Above 2.4%: March 11, 2026

Forecasters believe that initial claims will land between 211k and 220k for the third consecutive week tomorrow, as participants price a 67% probability of a number north of 210k and a 64% likelihood of a result that doesn’t exceed 220k. Thresholds below and above carry subdued probabilities, meanwhile, as there’s just a 15% chance of a statistic at or beneath 200k as well as 10% odds of a figure ahead of 230k. The expectations signal that investors think that labor conditions are healthy, as layoffs are projected to remain low. 

Activity To Remain Healthy Too

Similarly, forecasters believe that the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index will exceed 2.4% tomorrow morning for the fifth consecutive week, as there’s a 58% chance that the result arrives above that level. Meanwhile, three of the last four weeks have featured numbers ahead of 2.6%, and investors price that scenario at 35%, underscoring bullish sentiments about the economy even as the risk of a hawkish central bank and the Iran war pose challenges to the cycle. Indeed, rate cut optimism has declined substantially year-to-date as WTI crude oil jumped north of $119 this week, its loftiest cost since 2022.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 11, 2026. 

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here