Estimize

What does it do?

Estimize monitors company’s upcoming quarterly earnings estimates and provides its own estimates based upon a peer group of industry users who submit their own forecasts. This enables users to compare forecasts inside and outside of the universe of analysts contributing to Estimize. Users can see the differences between Estimize and Wall Street forecasts over time as well as the average price movement over time ahead of and post earnings. The aim is to enable the user to make a judgment on how a share price behaves over time in association with changes in earnings data. 

In TWS Mosaic, from the New Window button to the upper left, locate Information Systems and hover above the expansion arrow within the Discover label to see Estimize. Click to launch in a separate window.

To the upper left of the window are two buttons for Screener and Calendar. Estimize features a sophisticated user-driven Screener tool, called Earnings Edge, and also offers access to an earnings Calendar.

Earnings Edge

Within the Earnings Edge window users will see two tabs – Popular and All. In the grid below, users will see a column header named Popularity. Hover above the column header to learn that this means the number of all-time Estimize estimates. The greater the number of dots the more estimates have been provided. The data in the table is driven by the selections made by the user in the filters section to the right. Let’s review the output displayed on Earnings Edge and later we will consider the various filters available to users.

Earnings Edge –

The Estimize tool provides users access to:

1. Forthcoming earnings release dates and number of measured estimates.
2. Expectations measured by Estimize for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue and a comparison to the range of Wall Street estimates for the same.
3. Input fields where the user my enter EPS and revenue estimates for a stock, and then publish that data.
4. Reported Actuals as they appear.
5. Consensus % change for both Estimize and Wall Street.
   1. The delta or difference between the two.
   1. The delta or difference between your estimate and the consensus relative to Estimize and Wall Street.
   1. Difference between actuals and expectations.
6. Projected year-on-year growth for Estimize EPS and revenue.
7. Historical average price movement Pre, Through and Post earnings for 30, 5 and 1 day(s) prior to and post earnings announcements.
8. Percentage of time with positive price movement pre and post earnings
9. % of time the company has beaten EPS and revenue estimates from Estimize, Wall Street and company’s own guidance.
10. Proprietary Estimize win rate.
11. And historical reported coverage count.

Finally, click through any ticker symbol for a deeper dive to see Earnings Expectations through time versus Wall Street’s estimates and a chart for Historical EPS and Revenue consensus over time, as well as a look at the analysts contributing estimates. Click the Go Back link to return to Earnings Edge.

Filters

To drive a universe of stocks to the Earnings Edge page, use the filters to the left. Use the expand/contract arrow to the right of each filter to expose and hide the available selections.

Company

On the Company filter, the user expands the Sector menu and checks off those they are interested in. Likewise, this filter method can be extended to the industry level. Note the Popularity slider at the bottom allowing the user to filter by more or less followed stocks.

Release

Use the Release filter to narrow the search according to when companies are expected to report. Users may further filter by selecting companies that have Estimize Consensus numbers, have Wall Street consensus numbers and those that offer guidance. Use the slider to hone the appropriate number of estimates.

Deltas

Use the Deltas filter to help search for patterns in discrepancies between EPS and Revenue readings at different levels. For example, move the sliders to appropriate levels to find EPS differences between Estimize and Wall Street before filtering. There are six layers of differences or deltas to help users with their analysis.

Momentum

The Momentum filter enables users to look for changes in EPS and Revenue growth over a period they select, up to the prior three months, looking for a difference in consensus change at the Estimize or Wall Street consensus level.

Historical Price

The Historical Price filter allows users to look for companies whose share price has exhibited average movement of a user-specified range pre, through and post earnings. Users may also set the filter to look for companies that have displayed only positive price movement pre, through and post announcement dates.

Estimize Beats/Misses

The Estimize Beats/Misses filter allows the user to define the percentage of time that companies have beaten EPS and Revenue consensus at the Estimize and Wall Street consensus readings.  And, users can also filter by guidance on both EPS and Revenue. Use the lower Coverage box to narrow the universe by including companies that have been covered a certain number of times.

Win Rate

Users may set filters between zero and 100% for both EPS and revenue to display companies where Estimize data was more accurate than Wall Street consensus estimates.

Calendar

Click the Calendar icon to the upper left to see details on forthcoming and historic EPS and Revenue announcements. In the upper right, choose between Week and Quarter to see relevant time frame ,but also note the Quick Jump selection panel available when user clicks Quarter. Here, user may see historic data. Use the EPS and Revenue selector to the upper left of the table to toggle between the two measures. The company and reporting date are displayed alongside the number of contributors to the consensus number. The data to the right displays Delta, Surprise, Historical Beat rate along with associated value for either EPS or Revenue from Wall Street and Estimize. Finally, Actual value is displayed for historical readings.

Estimize provides a tremendous amount of data across a wide universe of stocks related to historical and future earnings. Users may scan for values on stocks, sectors and industries that they find valuable and attempt to uncover patterns or historic responses to prior earnings releases.