Stock market sensing an off-ramp moment for Iran war

Briefing.com Summary:

*The stock market is ready to rally after some placating remarks from President Trump regarding the war with Iran.

*Capital markets were looking weak overnight but have all reversed course.

*The Treasury market and oil market will continue to do ther market’s driving.

Everything was set for a lower open for stocks. Foreign markets were down sharply on the heels of Friday’s losses here; the 10-yr note yield was up to 4.44%; and crude futures had topped $98 per barrel. Those moves followed a declaration by President Trump over the weekend that Iran had 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz without threat, or else the U.S. would start bombing its power plants and energy infrastructure.

Then, everything turned on a dime—or a Truth Social post, we should say.

The latest word from President Trump is that the U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive conversations over the last two days. Accordingly, he has instructed the Department of War to hold off bombing Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing meetings.

With that disclosure out there, the equity futures market spiked, Treasury yields sank, and crude futures plummeted. Some of the initial enthusiasm has been dialed back, partly because it is unclear exactly to whom the U.S. is talking to on the Iranian side, partly because there is a seemingly short window for an agreement (five-day period?), and partly because there is a competing report that Iran is denying the president’s statement.

The stock market, however, is reading between the lines of everything and is sensing an off-ramp moment, sooner rather than later. There is a little more guarded enthusiasm in other markets, but for the most part, they are entertaining the same notion.

The S&P 500 futures, which had been down as many as 55 points, are up 124 points and are trading 1.9% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures, which had been down as many as 219 points, are up 474 points and are trading 1.9% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, which had been down as many as 400 points, are up 923 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value.

The 10-yr note yield, which hit 4.44%, fell to 4.31% and is now at 4.36%. WTI crude futures, which had topped $101.00/bbl, dropped to just north of $85.00/bbl and are now just shy of $89.00/bbl.

Undoubtedly, there is some short-covering activity taking place, and likely some speculation that what is going on now has a parallel to when the president backed off his most onerous tariff rates following his Liberation Day announcement that greatly upset the markets.

Today, then, is shaping up to be a very interesting day. Stocks will get a lot of attention, but if one wants the real pulse on the market’s take of the latest “conversations,” keep your eye on the Treasury market and the oil market. They have been driving things to this point, and we don’t expect them to give up the wheel just yet.

—

Originally Posted March 23, 2026 – Stock market sensing an off-ramp moment for Iran war