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Consider UMich “Nos” For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026

Consider UMich “Nos” For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026

Posted May 8, 2026 at 2:57 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index hit 48.5 this morning and the final revision will be published two weeks from today. In consideration of the absolute median and average differences between the first and second versions historically being at 0.7 and 1, purchasing “Nos” above the 48.5 threshold offers attractive risk-reward opportunities, in my opinion. Top of mind is the “No” at 50, which would require a rare upgrade of 1.6 to lose money and is undervalued at just $0.55, in my view.

IBKR predictive contract asking if consumer sentiment will exceed 50 in May
Pricing of IBKR predictive contracts regarding consumer sentiment
Historical revisions of Consumer Sentiment Index

Source for image: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 8, 2026. 

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