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Posted December 17, 2025 at 1:24 pm
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s chances of becoming the next Chair of the institution soared to 30% after he stated that labor trends were very soft and that the central bank’s current benchmark is as much as a percent above neutral. The dovish remarks boosted Waller’s odds, which were at just 4% last Friday, as justifications for deep cuts are what President Trump wants to hear. A full 100 basis points north of r squared implies the potential for 4 rate reductions in the next few quarters. He did counter those statements favoring looser financial conditions by reiterating the importance of the committee’s independence from the White House though. There are approximately 50k open contracts tied to the nomination.
Central Banks of Japan, Mexico and EU To Make 3 Different Decisions
Tomorrow’s rate decisions from the central banks of Japan, Mexico and the European Union are expected to feature 3 different results with an elevated degree of certainty. Indeed, Japan is likely to hike, Mexico to cut, and the ECB to pause, with the probabilities associated with the verdicts at 96%, 94% and 97%.
US CPI Expectations
Contracts associated with tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) offer odds of a headline number north of 2.9% with a 74% degree of confidence while a statistic lower than 3.2%, or failing to exceed 3.1%, is at 94%. For core, meanwhile, the gauge that excludes food and energy, there’s a 53% chance of a result that arrives above 2.9% and a 45% likelihood of a figure that comes in at 2.9% or under.
Undervalued Trade Idea from Dallas Fed
Tomorrow’s Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed is poised to arrive above 2% with a 95% degree of confidence in my opinion, but our forecast contract question at that threshold is at just 72%. The print has only come in below 2% once in the past 26 weeks and there’s no indication of a steep deceleration from the previously reported 2.29% last week.
Japan CPI Is Undervalued Too
Japan’s CPI is expected to have increased 3% year over year last month to 113.3, which compare to 112.8 in October and 110 in November of last year. Meanwhile, the “Yes” contracts at 112.4 and 113.2 are undervalued at $0.72 and $0.05 in my opinion and should be closer to $0.90 and $0.55.
Yesterday’s Trading Was Active
ForecastEx trading was active on December 16 with north of 2.5 million instruments being traded. Themes with over 10k total contracts exchanged throughout the session included the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial, Bitcoin and Solana. Meanwhile, there was just 1 block trade yesterday, defined as a single transaction of 10k contracts or more. Indeed, 20k contracts executed at 10:54 AM ET with the “Yes” paying $0.76 and the “No” putting up $0.25 for the question asking it the Republicans will win a majority in the Senate next year.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 17, 2025.
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