Welcome Back!

Traders in the US are back from the long weekend in a very happy mood.  After a relatively quiet week that featured few exogenous catalysts – with one glaring exception – and a now-anomalous period in which major indices ceded ground, stock traders in the US and abroad are generally hitting the “buy” button on their screens.

There are three pieces of good news driving the activity today.  First came the reports that the shock 50% tariffs on all goods from the EU will be delayed until July 9^th.  That is certainly better than the June 1^st deadline that caught the world off guard last week.  Although stock markets were closed yesterday, index futures were trading, and those rose by about 1% in response.  That wiped out Friday’s decline. 

Then we got news overnight that Japan’s Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of long-term government bonds (JGBs).  That was welcomed warmly by local and international investors alike.  Yields on 20- and 30-year JGBs fell by more than 10 basis points.  Because longer-dated bond yields had been moving higher in general lockstep recently, that eased the pressure on global rates.  We see yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve about 5-10bp lower.  And because higher bond yields have been a source of trouble for stocks in recent sessions, that offered a second lift to US stocks.

The third piece of good news came from the Conference Board.  We have been concerned with terrible consumer sentiment reports over the past few weeks, but the confidence number rose for the first time since November.  Frankly, it didn’t just rise – it zoomed.  The reading went from 85.7 to 98, a stunning 12.3-point jump that was more than 10 points above the 87.1 consensus.   The improved sentiment was attributed easing of tariff tensions, since the survey was taken after the May 12^th moratorium on China tariffs. 

Indeed, that is quite a trifecta.  It would have been stunning if we didn’t have a substantial rally today. 

It also appears that a message about tariffs has been reinforced.  The market has been discounting the worst of the tariff threats as just that – threats, not actions.  How else should we interpret them if they continually get reduced or pushed back?  Just as children learn very quickly that they can push boundaries if mom or dad threaten punishments that never fully materialize, traders have learned that the administration will almost back off if either our trading counterparts negotiate or the markets revolt.  And the markets have been anything but revolting.

Thus, tariff-induced dips have become yet another in a series of perceived buying opportunities.  As I noted in a media appearance today, this can be a bit akin to rewarding a firebug each time he reaches for an extinguisher.   The curious problem, which we’ll need to deal with in the long-run, is whether we actually find ourselves better off after each of these bouts of volatility.  Remember, we are still almost certain to end up with higher import prices once the tariff regime is established.  But for now, we might as well keep enjoying the relief rallies.