Weekly Market Recap: Week of May 11, 2026

The week in review

• PMI slowed to 53.6
• Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs

The week ahead

• April CPI/PPI
• Retail sales

Thought of the Week

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, cutting off the world’s most important energy chokepoint. The result has been higher global energy prices, with WTI crude peaking at $112 per barrel, and increased scrutiny of countries’ strategic petroleum reserves, as import-dependent economies receive less oil at a significantly higher cost.

Many countries appear well positioned in terms of net import coverage. Several Asian economies reliant on imports have among the highest reserve coverage globally, with Japan and South Korea holding more than 200 days of reserves. Despite having the world’s largest reserves, China has similar coverage to Europe and Taiwan at roughly 120 days. The U.S. holds the second-largest reserves globally but is a net exporter of oil, making comparisons less relevant.

Following the closure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its largest emergency oil stock release on record, with 32 member countries set to release 400 million barrels over the coming months, more than twice the amount released during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Strategic reserves are not designed to eliminate energy shocks, but to provide temporary flexibility during periods of disruption. During geopolitical crises or supply chain interruptions, the ability to stabilize domestic markets and support critical industries becomes increasingly valuable.

Finally, while the release may appear substantial, the world consumes roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day, about 20% of which flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This is equivalent to roughly 4 days of global consumption, or 20 days of Strait flows, which underscores the importance of reopening the Strait.

Chart of the Week: Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S.
Energy Information Administration, J.P. Morgan Investment Bank,
and J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Days covered is an estimate of
how many days a country’s emergency petroleum reserves would
last if net imports stopped. Includes government-controlled
reserves/mandated industry stocks. Taiwan does not report specific
Strategic Petroleum Reserves, calculated using Estimated Days of
Cover*Daily Consumption, as per IEA and J.P. Morgan IB. *The U.S. is a
net exporter of oil; therefore, days covered is not calculated.
European figures include IEA members only and include strategic
and mandated industry reserves. Data are as of April 30, 2026.
Thought of the week: Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S.
Energy Information Administration, J.P. Morgan Investment Bank,
and J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of April 30, 2026.

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Originally Posted May 11, 2026 – Weekly Market Recap

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