Weekly Market Recap: April 14, 2025

The week in review

• Headline CPI fell 0.1% m/m and rose 2.4% y/y
• Consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0

The week ahead

• Retail sales
• Industrial production

Thought of the Week

Last week’s erratic market moves were disorienting. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out its worst four-day stretch since the pandemic, falling over 12% after the administration announced tariffs that exceeded market expectations. Shortly after, news that these tariffs would be suspended for most countries fueled a 9.5% market rally, the largest one-day gain since 2008. Volatility wasn’t confined to just equities. 10-year yields fell 19bps due to increased growth fears after the tariff announcement, only to finish last week 47bps higher.

Investors may feel compelled to wait out market volatility in cash. However, this tends to be a losing strategy. This week’s chart analyzes returns for a diversified 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over different rolling periods since 1995, covering the Dot-Com Bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 Pandemic and other periods of heightened volatility. History shows that, despite these periods of stress, the diversified portfolio dependably outperforms cash, with the likelihood of outperformance rising with the investment horizon. The 60/40 has beaten cash in 64% of all rolling 1-month periods, 91% of all 10-year periods and 100% of all periods of 13 years or longer. It is equally as important to recognize that markets have always recovered from large downturns. In fact, the diversified portfolio has never finished a rolling period of 10 years or longer in the red.

When uncertainty is driving markets, investors must remember the basics. Diversification is critical, as bonds help diversify equity exposure against growth shocks. Investors should also get invested and stay invested. While the S&P 500 being down ~13% from its February peaks feels painful, long-term portfolios will recover with time. Moreover, investors who invest actively can use sell-offs to gain exposure to quality companies at attractive valuations and lock in attractive yields and protection for portfolios.

Chart of the Week: Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s,
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The 60/40 portfolio is 60% invested
in the S&P 500 Total Return Index and 40% invested in the Bloomberg
U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index. Cash represented by the
Bloomberg 1-3 Month Treasury Index.
Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s,
J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

—

Originally Posted April 14, 2025 – Weekly Market Recap

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.

The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature
or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.

Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

^©JPMorgan Chase & Co., April 2025.

Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of April 14, 2025 or as of most recently available.