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Posted June 11, 2026 at 12:55 pm
The University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8 last month and a sharp recovery isn’t expected. Many of the struggles from the prior report still exist, namely the Middle East conflict leading to pain at the pump and geopolitical anxiety, elevated inflation, sluggish paycheck increases and high mortgage rates. Against this backdrop, the median estimate in the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters is 46 amidst minimum and maximum projections of 42 and 48.5. Meanwhile the “Nos” at 48 and at 50 are going for what I consider to be undervalued prices of $0.17 and $0.47. The trades are profitable on a number equal to or less than 48 in the former case, or 50 in the latter example. While the preliminary print is due tomorrow, this contract does settle upon release of the final publication on June 26. Historically, revisions have averaged a change of around plus or minus 1.
Germany’s preliminary May Consumer Price Index (CPI) print was 124.9 and there’s an expectation that tomorrow’s final result will arrive right around there as well. Indeed, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market prices the 125 “Yes” at $0.16, implying just a 16% chance of a number of 125.1 or higher. Over and under, the 124 and 126 thresholds are out of reach with elevated degrees of certainty above 95%.
The monthly increase expected in India’s CPI is poised to deliver a number near 105.5, considering that April’s figure was at 105.1. But the “Yeses” at 104 and 105 are going for undervalued prices of $0.93 and $0.81, in my opinion, requiring a May decline in inflation to potentially lose money. The path to a decrease here is narrow, as heavier fuel costs likely pushed this gauge up meaningfully.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 11, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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