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Posted April 21, 2026 at 10:15 am
Briefing.com Summary:
*Yesterday’s resilience to selling efforts has fostered some fear of missing out on further gains.
*There is hope of a positive outcome from the U.S. and Iran talks in Pakistan this week.
*March retail sales looked strong, but that strength comes with an asterisk.
What makes a market? Buyers and sellers. What drives a market? News—and there is lots of it today. We have earnings, economic data, geopolitics, AI developments, and Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET.
What we also have is a market that is trading with a positive bias.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 243 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.
In the interest of time and space, we’ll encapsulate here the basis for the positive bias.
We’re going to carve out some extra space for economic data, as we typically do, but that isn’t helping the cause as much on closer inspection.
Total retail sales increased 1.7% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus: 1.3%), driven by a 15.5% increase in gasoline sales, following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.6%) in February. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 1.9% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.9%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.5%) in February.
The key takeaway from the report is that retail sales look great from a headline perspective, but higher gas prices and higher prices in general were the main drivers. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales were up 0.6% month-over-month, which looks good, but remember retail sales are not adjusted for price changes. Accordingly, it becomes evident that the sales gains in March were driven more by higher prices than increased volume, which is a better indication of demand.
Still, the demand for stocks is there this morning, with market participants clutching to good news over bad and retaining hope that the Iran war won’t have a lasting and negative impact on the global economy.
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Originally Posted April 21, 2026 – Clutching to good news and high hopes
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