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Posted September 18, 2025 at 8:59 am
By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC
1/ Fed Day: Daily Chart Setup
2/ Weekly Chart: Momentum Holds
3/ Monthly Chart: Late Stage Rally
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Fed Day: Daily Chart Setup
All eyes are on the Fed today, but the daily chart is already showing its hand.
The S&P 500 has been stair stepping higher for two weeks straight with 8 green days out of the last 11 and nearly 150 points added since September began. Daily candles are narrowing. Traders are positioning ahead of the decision but not pressing too hard.
With a 95 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut already priced in, the real story is whether Powell signals more cuts ahead.
The daily chart is vulnerable to a classic sell the news move. Watch how price behaves around 6580 to 6650. Today’s candle could dictate how September unfolds.
Weekly Chart: Momentum Holds
Zooming out, the weekly chart shows this is not just a September rally. It is a five month surge with serious momentum.
Since April’s lows near 5000, the S&P has climbed 32 percent. Each of the last three weekly closes has been stronger than the last, breaking cleanly out of the summer’s sideways range. This is textbook momentum.
Key levels for the intermediate view:
Momentum can cut both ways. Either this trend extends higher or the Fed sparks the first topping pattern in months.
Even if we see a dip today, the weekly structure stays bullish until 6400 breaks. Short term pullbacks do not mean the trend is broken.
Monthly Chart: Late Stage Rally
The monthly chart puts everything in perspective and shows why the next move matters more than today’s cut.
From the March and April lows at 5000, the S&P has staged a textbook V shaped recovery. September’s candle is already up 3.5 percent and the trajectory is now steeper than the early post COVID bull market. That kind of vertical move rarely lasts.
Key long-term levels:
The monthly chart confirms the uptrend, but we are in late stage territory. Today’s Fed decision could either accelerate into a blow off top or mark the first step toward the correction that has been building.
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Originally posted 17th September 2025
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