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Posted July 10, 2026 at 1:18 pm
Singapore’s economy likely slowed down in the 2nd quarter, as the US-Iran war weighed on activity by lifting oil prices, raising interest rates and strengthening the greenback. All 14 forecasters in a Reuters poll see a declaration from the first quarter’s 6% year-over-year expansion, with the median estimate at 5.1% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.6% and 5.4%. Against this backdrop of an elevated likelihood of moderating growth, the $0.75 “No” Interactive Brokers prediction contract at 6% appears undervalued, in my opinion, as there’s a narrow path to an acceleration to 6.1%. Indeed, even an unchanged result would pay $1.00 on this trade, while a figure of 6.1% or above would generate losses. Finally, this contract settles upon release on of the final, revised statistics on August 24, while this Monday will offer the preliminary reading.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 10, 2026.
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Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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