- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Quant Articles
Quant Articles
Posted December 4, 2025 at 2:22 pm
Yesterday’s trading volume on ForecastEx was just shy of 3.5 million and participation was strong across a wide variety of themes. Some of the largest single trades involved the highest daily temperatures in Houston, San Francisco, Dallas and Denver, the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday and whether a Republican or Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election. Meanwhile, I’m highlighting some trade ideas beneath for economic indicators in Canada and the US that expire tomorrow and I believe offer undervalued opportunities to participants.
August 2022 was the last time Canada’s unemployment rate jumped by 0.4% month over month (m/m) or more, and in consideration of the latest 6.9% joblessness figure, investors may want to consider forecast positions that potentially profit from the historical tendencies. Top of mind is the 7.2% “No,” which will require a 0.4% m/m climb to lose money. I find the pricing undervalued at $0.84, since I think its cost should be closer to $0.96. Furthermore, the “No” at 7.3% is additionally compelling; it’s going for $0.94. Finally, across 259 observations going back 21 years, the m/m change has been 0.4% or higher in just 12 occurrences, or 4.6% of the time.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is well telegraphed by Wall Street because critical inputs for it are made previously available in the Consumer and Producer inflation gauges, which are released earlier in the month. The core gauge is expected to remain at 2.9% and the “No” at that level is undervalued at $0.75, in my opinion. Furthermore, my estimate is at 2.86%, making a downside surprise increasingly possible. But the thresholds from 2.4% to 2.7% are pretty unreachable in my view, and I find the risk-reward of the “Yeses” attractive there; they’re costing between $0.87 and $0.96.
The overall PCE is expected to come in at 2.8% and a drop to 2.5% is not in the cards. The “Yes” at 2.5% is undervalued at $0.97, since it should be off the board in my view.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 4, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Comments 88 Comments in moderation
The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Interactive Brokers, its affiliates, or its employees.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!