Lower oil prices driving rebound bid

Briefing.com Summary:

• Lower oil prices have helped drive a rebound effort.
• The S&P 500 is sitting just above key support at its 200-day moving average (6607).
• NVIDIA promises to be a corporate focal point, as it kicks off its GTC Conference today.

The stock market had a tough go of it last week, but things have been smoothed over a bit this morning thanks to well-behaved oil prices and some bargain-hunting activity.

The S&P 500 futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 259 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 326 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.

A higher open, then, is in store for the major indices, which are drawing added support from lower bond yields, gains in the mega-cap stocks, and technical buying interest after Friday’s close (6632) left the S&P 500 just above key support at its 200-day moving average (6607).

WTI crude futures are currently down 1.8% to $96.96 per barrel, sparking a sense of relief after the U.S. attacked military targets over the weekend on Kharg Island, Iran’s most important oil hub. The oil infrastructure there was reportedly spared, leaving participants free to focus on the related news that the U.S. is working on forming an allied defense coalition that will provide safe transport for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

The market, again, appears to be leaning on the notion that the war will come to an end relatively soon without much lasting damage to the global economy. Therefore, a buy-the-dip trade has taken root this morning, yet it is too soon to suggest that the market volatility is destined now to dissipate.

By week’s end, there should be a better sense of how central banks are viewing things. There are 16 central bank decisions due this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

Global bond markets will be closely attuned to those decisions, but this morning they are largely attuned to oil prices. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.67%, and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.23% ahead of the February Industrial Production Report at 9:15 a.m. ET. Earlier, the March Empire State Manufacturing Survey checked in at -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5) versus 7.1 in February.

Lower Treasury yields have offered a good backdrop for long-duration assets to show some rebound verve, and many are showing out in front of the opening bell. NVIDIA (NVDA) is chief among them, trading up 1.9%.

NVIDIA’s GTC Conference kicks off today and will feature a keynote address from CEO Jensen Huang at 2:00 p.m. ET. The FT reports that NVIDIA is aiming to introduce a new artificial intelligence “inference” chip at the GTC event this week.

That would be an apt introduction for a week where a lot of inferences are going to be made thanks to the confluence of geopolitical, central bank, economic, and corporate action items.

—

Originally Posted on March 16, 2026 – Lower oil prices driving rebound bid