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Posted July 15, 2026 at 1:24 pm
Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are expecting modest growth in tomorrow’s retail sales print, as the “Yes” at 0.3% is going for $0.49 after the prior print came in at 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive months of gains. June would signal the fifth publication in a row featuring an increase. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 0.7%, 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.1% and 0% are priced at $0.08, $0.26, $0.42, $0.73 and $0.76. The monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters, meanwhile, carries a median estimate of 0.2% against the backdrop of a wide range of possible outcomes, as the minimum and maximum projections sit at -0.4% and 1%. This indicator does have an elevated deviation rate and has posted jaw-dropping surprises more often than the average for overall economic data.
Initial unemployment claims have not come in ahead of 210k for nine consecutive weeks and tomorrow is likely to mark the 10th as unfavorable seasonal effects keep the indicator near 220k. Meanwhile, the “Yes” is going for $0.66, an undervalued price in my opinion and the consensus agrees as the median estimate in the weekly Reuters poll of 35 forecasters is at 217k. The minimum and maximum projections are 205k and 225k; however, so there is at least one economist that thinks a sharp fall could be in the cards. Over and under, furthermore, the “Yeses” at 230k, 220k and 200k are being offered at $0.10, $0.26 and $0.91.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index has been volatile lately, with the last four prints coming in at 3.11%, 2.57%, 2.55% and 3.17%. Business activity and overall conditions have fluctuated significantly recently against the backdrop of still strong cyclical momentum, with every print this year arriving above 2%, a healthy clip. For tomorrow’s release, however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market prices the 2.4%, 2.6%, 2.8%, 3% and 3.2% “Yeses” at $0.86, $0.80, $0.67, $0.43 and $0.10.
The Bank of Korea is going to lift rates tomorrow for the first time since January 2023, over three year ago. While it’s not fully certain, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market does assign a 94% chance that the monetary policy authority will lift its benchmark. The institution is raising to quell heavy inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations while strong economic conditions and subdued unemployment are offering them a path to tighten its stance.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 15, 2026.
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