50% Chance That Retail Sales Expanded For 6th Consecutive Month in Tomorrow’s Print: Aug. 13, 2026

There’s a 50% chance that data tomorrow will show that retail sales expanded for the sixth consecutive month as consumer spending continues to be bolstered by subdued unemployment and buoyant capital markets. After growing 0.2% month over month in June, the “Yes” contract with a 0% threshold for July’s number is priced at $0.50. I think the result will feature a positive figure near 0.2% and I believe value exists in the coin-flip contract since higher-frequency gauges have reflected shopper momentum last month. This indicator does carry an elevated deviation rate, however, and can sometimes vary wildly from the distribution of economist expectations. Indeed, the monthly Reuters poll of 57 forecasters carries a median estimate of 0.1% amidst minimum and maximum values of -0.5% and 0.7%, which is emblematic of the wide range of potential outcomes. Turning to the over and under thresholds in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, the “Yeses” at -0.5%, 0.5% and 1% are being priced at $0.97, $0.14 and $0.07.

UMich “Yeses” Are Undervalued

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is anticipated to come in at 54.5 tomorrow morning, marking a potential decline from July’s 55.2, with households expect to have cited inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties as top headwinds influencing their finances. But despite the expectation for a modest decrease, the “Yes” contracts at 50, 52 and 54 thresholds are going for just $0.52, $0.40 and $0.25 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, which implies an unreasonable plunge that I don’t see in the cards. Furthermore, the range of projection in the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters span from 51 to 57.2, signaling that the economist consensus finds these “Yeses” undervalued as well. Finally, this Friday’s print is the preliminary one, and the contracts settle 14 days later on August 28 upon release of the finalized publication. Historically, the revised version isn’t starkly different from the flash.

Hong Kong Q2 GDP Likely Similar to First Estimate

Hong Kong’s second-quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print likely came in near the first read of 4.3% year over year as the revision is typically around the preliminary figure. The 3% and 5% thresholds in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are signaling a number in that vicinity, generally speaking, as those “Yeses” are going for $0.98 and $0.01.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 13, 2026. 

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