The nor’easter’s peak winds and Hurricane Polo approaching Baja California

• The strongest gust from the nor’easter recorded at a wind station in the ForecastEx prediction market reached 62 mph at Nantucket early Saturday.
• Hurricane Polo is expected to arrive in Baja California Sur this evening, potentially near Category 3 strength. As of the morning of 9/28/2026, the ForecastEx prediction market indicates a 49% chance of a Category 3+ hurricane making landfall in Mexico in 2026.

Image from NOAA STAR (GOES-West GeoColor, 11:40 AM EDT September 28).

The nor’easter that brought major tidal flooding to the Jersey Shore this weekend is winding down, and Hurricane Polo is about to make landfall in Baja California Sur.

The nor’easter’s peak winds

This weekend’s nor’easter’s largest impacts were related to coastal flooding, which was some of the worst in the area since Hurricane Sandy (see The Eyewall‘s Sunday evening post for a recap of the meteorology).

ForecastEx’s measure of intensity, however, was the daily maximum wind speed contracts, which ask questions of the form “Will the maximum wind speed or wind gust in Nantucket exceed 59 mph on September 26, 2026?”

At the 14 stations with ForecastEx wind contracts, the largest gust was 62 mph at Nantucket at 2:53 AM Saturday, followed by 55 mph at Atlantic City late Friday, 54 mph at Martha’s Vineyard and Islip early Saturday, and 53 mph at New London early Saturday and Boston Saturday evening.

The largest payout multiples were:

• Boston above 46 mph and above 50 mph on Saturday paid 6.3 times (Yes at 16¢ when first quoted at 12:03 AM ET Friday).
• New York City above 44 mph on Friday paid 5.3 times (Yes at 19¢ at 5:06 PM ET Thursday).
• Nantucket above 59 mph on Saturday paid 4.2 times (Yes at 24¢ at 12:03 AM ET Friday).
• Atlantic City above 45 mph, Islip above 49 mph, New London above 47 mph, and Dover above 39 mph on Saturday each paid 2.9 times (Yes at 34¢ at 12:27 PM ET Friday).

Shading from NOAA’s URMA analysis.

Hurricane Polo and Mexico

In the late morning on Monday, Hurricane Polo was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds about 85 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro, Mexico, moving northeast at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects the center to reach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur this evening, cross the Gulf of California, and make a second landfall in Sonora on Tuesday morning as a weaker hurricane.

From the live hurricane page.

The relevant question for the ForecastEx hurricane landfall contract is whether Polo is still a major hurricane when its eye reaches the coast. The contract asks “Will there be a Major Hurricane Landfall within Mexico in 2026?” and settles on NOAA’s advisory at the time of landfall.

The Mexico landfall contract’s pricing fluctuated based on NHC’s forecast. It rose to 66% on Sunday afternoon (Yes bid 63¢, No bid 31¢) after NHC indicated Polo’s intensity near the coast increased to Category 3. Overnight, it reached 67%, then dropped to 32% early this morning (Yes bid 29¢, No bid 65¢) after the 5 AM ET forecast lowered the projected landfall intensity to about 95 knots. Later, it increased to 49% (Yes bid 46¢, No bid 48¢) following the 11 AM ET forecast, which kept Polo at 100 knots until landfall.

Figure produced by Patrick Brown with Matplotlib from ForecastEx prices and National Hurricane Center forecasts.

A Category 2 landfall would leave the contract open for the rest of the season. Tropical Storm Rachel, about 230 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and reach 100 mph by Thursday with a possible path on shore.

Further Reading

• Prediction markets can improve forecast accuracy even for physical quantities well-represented by established mechanistic models.
• Live Hurricane Wind Gust Prediction Markets at ForecastEx — how the per-location wind gust contracts list, trade, and settle.
• Hurricane Forecast Contracts — how the count and landfall contracts work.
• Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts — using landfall contracts as parametric cover.
• Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio — correlation properties against conventional assets.
• Bundling “NO” Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk — constructing a bundle across locations.