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Forecasters Expect a Downward Revision in Tomorrow’s UMich: March 26, 2026

Forecasters Expect a Downward Revision in Tomorrow’s UMich: March 26, 2026

Posted March 26, 2026 at 12:46 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Tomorrow morning’s final reading of the University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to arrive beneath the preliminary March print of 55.5. There is a greater likelihood of a downward revision rather than an upward adjustment, as the “No” at 54 is priced at 25% while the “Yes” at 56 is going for 10%. The lower bias is likely due to investors perceiving that pain at the pump and geopolitical uncertainty probably worsened household confidence as the month progressed. Furthermore, this survey carries a negative correlation with gasoline prices at an elevated degree, and fuel costs have been surging in light of the Iran war, serving to strain the pocketbooks and moods of shoppers around the world. 

Predictive market contract regarding US consumer sentiment

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 26, 2026. 

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