Industrial Production Was Expected to Expand 1.35% Y/Y, But “Yes” at 1% Cost Just $0.54: July 16, 2026

Industrial production on Wednesday was expected to expand 1.35% year over year in the subsequent day’s data release; however, the “Yes” at 1% cost what I considered to be an undervalued $0.54. This indicator has grown on a month-over-month basis every period this year except for March, and on Wednesday, I expected that the gauge would increase again.  Meanwhile, the “Yes” would not lose on a m/m reduction of over -0.1%, as the y/y result would arrive at 1% or under in the scenario. Some economists envisioned a downside surprise as the 49 forecasters polled by Reuters had a median estimate of 0.2% m/m amidst minimum and maximum projections of -0.5% and 0.6%, indicating a wide range of potential outcomes. This release has somewhat of elevated deviation rate and is slightly more likely than other gauges to produce a number far from the consensus.

UMich Sentiment Was Expected to Improve

The University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index was expected to improve modestly from 49.5 to 51, as lower gasoline charges helped drive inflationary pressures south. Still, overall prices have been elevated, interest rates have been heavy, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues and there’s uncertainty about tariffs around the corner. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the “Yeses” at 48, 50, 52 and 56 on Wednesday were  priced at $0.80, $0.70, $0.30 and $0.12 while in the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters, the minimum and maximum projections were 47 and 54 amidst a median of 51. 

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 16, 2026. 

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