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Posted January 26, 2026 at 1:25 pm
The last four days of forecast trading from Friday through today featured forecasters engaging with a wide range of topics. North of 6 million contracts were traded collectively and the high temperatures across US cities continued to comprise a substantial share of total volumes, with New York City and San Francisco especially popular on this Monday the 26th.
Investors have also been gravitating to financial market topics with contracts tied to the prices of the futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices. Additionally, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP contracts have seen daily volumes north of 10k several times in the past few days, as traders gravitate to forecast markets to invest, speculate, hedge, arbitrage and market-make across asset classes in a modern way.
There’s nearly a 100% chance that the Fed will hold rates this Wednesday and that there will be formal disagreement across the committee. Investors have also been entering and exiting positions in US central bank-related contracts with heavy volumes recently as the event approaches.
Prices from the crude oil and natural gas futures markets signal that retail costs at the pump likely climbed notably last week, since they’re tightly correlated. The “Yes” at $2.80 appears undervalued at $0.89, since the indicator has probably risen from the $2.81 reported for the period ended seven days ago and the chance that it has declined from that level is less than 5% in my opinion.
Source for image: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 26, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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