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Posted April 13, 2026 at 12:54 pm
Tomorrow’s March Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to come in at 4.6% and according to my own opinion, I’ve spotted an undervalued opportunity in the Interactive Brokers prediction market as it relates to this indicator. Taking the “Yes” at 3.8% for $0.35 would deliver almost a triple, since it would pay out $1.00 on a number of 3.9% or higher. For context, February’s print was 3.4%, and the PPI’s closer watched cousin, the Consumer Price Index, featured a year-over-year figure that rose 90 basis points throughout the same time period, from 2.4% to 3.3%, signaling that a substantial annualized increase should be expected month over month for the PPI as well. Furthermore, the PPI is even more sensitive to rising fuel and goods costs, by the way, and should reflect a stronger acceleration, considering that services were relatively tame in the CPI. Meanwhile, of the 19 economists surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, most would agree, as the median stands at 4.7% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum forecasts of 3.4% and 5.9%. Personally, I don’t know what the 3.4% entry is all about as I can’t see a path to an unchanged result. Additionally, the “Yeses” at 3.4% and 3.6% are too cheap in my view, at just $0.78 and $0.58.
Retail gasoline prices likely rose for the 13th consecutive week, as heavy crude oil costs continue to drive pain at the pump. The seven-day period ended on April 6 saw a result of $4.12, and the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a 78% chance of a figure coming in ahead of $4.10 for the time span culminating on April 13. However, there’s only a 4% probability of a number arriving north of $4.20, as participants expect a level around $4.18 in tomorrow morning’s publication.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 13, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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