Alternating between AI despair and AI opportunity

Briefing.com Summary:

*NVIDIA and other mega-cap stocks are providing influential support for the futures market.

*The December housing starts and durable goods orders reports were better than expected.

*Oil prices are rising on some contentious-sounding reports related to the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The S&P 500 continues to vacillate below the 7,000 level, alternating at times between AI despair and AI opportunity. This morning is bringing more opportunity than despair thanks to gains in many of the mega-cap stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is chief among them after announcing a multiyear strategic partnership with Meta Platforms (META). The move in shares of NVDA (+1.8%) has put some pep in the step of the futures trade.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 56 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Those indications are not the best levels of the morning, however. Higher levels were reached earlier this morning, but prices came in a bit with oil prices rising on some contentious-sounding reports related to the U.S.-Iran negotiations. WTI crude futures are up 2.5% to $63.89/bbl.

Nonetheless, the major indices remain on course for a higher start, having digested this morning’s economic data.

Total housing starts increased 6.2% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million units (Briefing.com consensus: 1320K), with single-unit starts up 4.1%. Building permits increased 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.448 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1412K), with single-unit permits down 1.7%.

The key takeaway from the report is that it is not the answer for a supply-constrained housing market. Single-unit permits were down overall, but they fell the sharpest in the South (-5.3%), which is the nation’s largest homebuilding region.

Durable goods orders declined 1.4% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus: -2.6%), paced by a 5.3% decline in transportation equipment orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.9% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in November.

The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation component. Otherwise, it was a solid report featuring a 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key gauge of business spending.

This economic news is a precursor to this afternoon’s release of the FOMC Minutes for the January 27-28 meeting, which will be published at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.08%.

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Originally Posted February 18, 2026 – Alternating between AI despair and AI opportunity