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Posted September 8, 2025 at 12:54 pm
From Tuesday September 2 to September 8, gasoline futures prices and the cost of crude oil have descended from approximately $1.99 and $64.50 to $1.96 and $62.15, pointing to an elevated probability of a reduction in charges at the pump during the past seven days. Meanwhile, September 1’s print of $3.17 is likely to be updated lower tomorrow in light of market forces, so I find the risk-reward profile of the “No” answer at $3.25 attractive at $0.92. A highly unlikely week-over-week climb of 2.3% is required for this trade to lose money. Furthermore, this indicator has not exceeded that threshold since the week ending September 2, 2024, over a year from now.
Monthly Inflation Increase of 0.29% is Unlikely in Germany
Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index for Germany is expected to be unchanged month over month and remain near an index level of 122.2. A jump above 122.5 would require a monster beat of 0.29% to exceed 122.5 after rounding. But of the 17 professional forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum and maximum ranges lie at -0.1% and +0.1%. Meanwhile, pricing is attractive in my view when you look at the “Nos” from 122.5 to 124 and appear safe in my opinion. The “Nos” on the four distinct thresholds priced at $0.70, $0.88, $0.94 and $0.95.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 8, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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