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Posted September 25, 2026 at 11:45 am
ForecastEx prices Saturday’s peak wind at Nantucket above 52 mph at 67%, and a major hurricane landfall in Mexico at 38% as of the morning of 9/25/2026. The chances of high winds in Hawaii from Nolo have dropped substantially.
Image from NOAA STAR (GOES-19 GeoColor, 7:51 AM EDT September 25).
A major early-season nor’easter is approaching the Northeast coast, Hurricane Polo is moving toward Baja California (Mexico), and Hurricane Nolo’s threat to Hawaii is likely diminishing.
Three ForecastEx weather prediction market contract families are currently relevant to these three prominent storms.
The wind page and the hurricane page show live prices and decision support tools for trading these contracts.
A coastal low off the Carolinas and Virginia this morning (satellite image above) is becoming the weekend’s prominent nor’easter (see The Eyewall‘s Thursday evening update for details on the meteorology).
The trusted “European model’s” overnight run puts the low’s center about 180 miles south of the eastern tip of Long Island at 2 PM Saturday, at 987 mb, with the strongest wind gusts along the coast from New Jersey to Cape Cod.
The map below shows the field with locations that carry ForecastEx wind contracts for Saturday.
ForecastEx’s daily maximum wind speed contracts ask questions of the form “Will the maximum wind speed or wind gust in Nantucket exceed 52 mph on September 26, 2026?”
Map data from ECMWF open data. Prices from ForecastEx at 11:13 AM ET Friday. Live ladders for every listed station are on the wind page.
As of Friday morning, the exchange gave a reasonable chance that many locations would experience wind gusts above ‘tropical storm’ strength (39 mph). For example, New York has a 22% chance of winds exceeding 46 mph, Boston a 27% chance of winds exceeding 41 mph, Atlantic City a 12% chance of winds exceeding 59 mph, and Nantucket an 11% chance of winds exceeding 64 mph.
Hurricane Nolo, about 220 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, has 85 mph winds and is crawling north-northeast at 5 mph.
It is still forecast to strengthen substantially, but the forecast path has shifted farther south, likely sparing Hawaii from strong winds (rainfall remains the dominant impact).
From the live hurricane page.
This is reflected in the Live Hurricane contracts, which earlier had Hilo at a 15% probability of wind gusts of at least 70 mph but have since dropped to near zero.
Hurricane Polo regained Category 5 strength overnight, with 160 mph winds about 250 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving west at 12 mph. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast keeps it moving west today, then turns it north and northeast, carrying its center across Baja California Sur on Monday. Their forecast has the storm weakening from 110 mph (Category 2) southwest of the peninsula on Sunday night to 90 mph (Category 1) over the Gulf of California on Monday night.
From the live hurricane page.
The Google DeepMind ensemble initialized at 00Z Friday is a bit more bullish on intensity. About 20% of its members are solidly Category 3 at landfall, and another 40% are right around the border between Category 2 and Category 3.
ForecastEx had the major hurricane landfall contract for Mexico at 38% on Friday morning (Yes bid 35¢, No bid 59¢).
From Weathernerds.
From the live hurricane page.
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