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Posted January 15, 2026 at 9:45 am
The broker sees promo-heavy spending holding up, backing Temple & Webster, Universal Store, and Sigma Healthcare while warning on laggards like Kogan.com and Endeavour.
What’s going on here?
Broker Jarden says consumers are still opening their wallets this quarter, but they’re trading down and chasing promotions – a mix that lifts a few standout retailers while squeezing the most commoditized names.
What does this mean?
Jarden’s read is that spending hasn’t vanished, it’s just gotten pickier. Christmas sales looked solid overall, but the broker says they were concentrated in fewer winners and driven by discounts, which tends to favor retailers with real brand pull or a clear value pitch. That’s why it likes household goods and electronics names such as Temple & Webster, Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, and Breville, and it flags Universal Store as its preferred youth fashion play. It also sees health-related retail as a steadier pocket, keeping Sigma Healthcare as a defensive growth idea, while warning that structurally challenged businesses like kogan.com, Endeavour, and Domino’s may struggle to hold volumes without leaning harder on price cuts.
Why should I care?
For markets: Promotions are becoming the entry fee.
When sales are deal-driven, margins can matter as much as revenue: the best operators can discount without wrecking profitability, while weaker ones get trapped in a race to the bottom. That’s the split behind Jarden’s calls – it favors Temple & Webster and Universal Store, but is more cautious on names like Wesfarmers, and it sees the toughest backdrop for heavily commoditized retailers.
Zooming out: Trading down reshuffles, it doesn’t stop, spending.
Shoppers often “trade down” by switching where they buy, not by quitting entirely – prioritizing perceived essentials like health, or high-value categories like home and electronics, while cutting back on interchangeable products. If that pattern sticks, the sector could see a longer period where a narrow set of brands take share and the middle gets squeezed, especially when promotions set the tone.
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Originally Posted January 14, 2026 – Jarden Says Shoppers Are Trading Down, Not Tapping Out
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