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Posted June 5, 2026 at 1:06 pm
Pain at the pump is expected to ease for the fourth consecutive week in this Tuesday’s report, as optimism regarding potential progress in the Middle East has quelled fuel costs. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are confident of a number between $4.16 and $4.18 per gallon, as the “Yes” at $4.15 and the “No” at $4.20 carry probabilities of 99% and 72%. But there could be some unexpected volatility either under or over since that’s a narrow realm of potential outcomes, and to take advantage of a massive plunge or a more tempered decrease from the previously released figures of $4.305, $4.475, $4.49 and $4.50 of the past four weeks, buying the “No” at $4.15 and the “Yes” at $4.20 offers an undervalued combination trade, in my opinion. Its combined price is $0.36. This transaction would deliver $1.00 back to investors on a statistic at $4.15 or below, as well as a figure above $4.20. It loses, however, on a print ranging from $4.151 to $4.20.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 5, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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