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Posted April 1, 2026 at 10:30 am
The Nasdaq 100 hit an all-time high near 26,700 in late October and has since fallen to approximately 23,000. Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services examines the two parts of the decline and what it means for the broader market outlook. The first leg of weakness traces back to a rotation away from the multi-year AI trade, where stretched valuations left the index exposed. The second leg accelerated as the conflict with Iran pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns that now complicate the Federal Reserve’s path forward. With inflation still elevated and the labor market softening, policymakers face the challenge of managing both sides of their mandate simultaneously. The March FOMC meeting left rates unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and the dot plot still projects one cut for 2026, but uncertainty has grown. On the technical side, the Nasdaq 100 flashed a warning when its 50-day moving average crossed below the 100-day on February 23rd. Now the 50-day is converging on the 200-day, setting up what traders call a death cross. Jim explains what that pattern signals and how it tends to attract selling pressure. Looking ahead, the next Nonfarm Payrolls report drops on Friday, April 3rd. Expectations call for a rebound of around 65,000 jobs following the prior negative 92,000 print. Jim discusses how a weaker-than-expected number could reinforce the stagflation narrative and further complicate the Fed’s rate path. Insights from Jim Iuorio. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equi…
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