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Posted May 1, 2026 at 1:06 pm
This Tuesday’s job openings data is likely to signal that labor conditions remain stable, confirming the strength seen in other reports like the BLS’s employment situation, ADP’s weekly release and layoff claims. The Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a number north of 6.6 million with a 70% degree of certainty, while a figure that doesn’t exceed 7.1 million carries an 84% likelihood. But this indicator is historically volatile and the survey has a subdued response rate, leaving investors vulnerable to unexpected wild swings. Meanwhile, the 5 forecasters included in the monthly Reuters poll are at the lower side, pointing to a median of 6.77 million amidst minimum and maximum values of 6.6 million and 6.88 million.
Retail gasoline prices are expected to have risen well above $4.30 per gallon in the week ended May 4, 2026, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market, which offers odds north of that figure at 91%. The result would mark a substantial lift from the prior three reports which printed a range from $4.044 to $4.123. The statistic is likely to be the costliest since July of 2022, but to eclipse June of that same year, an incoming publication would need to arrive ahead of $5.006.
Source for images: ForecastEx
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