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S&P 500 futures, Fed liquidity, CPI and AI Shift

S&P 500 futures, Fed liquidity, CPI and AI Shift

Posted December 19, 2025 at 9:45 am

Jim Iuorio
CME Group

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In this video, we analyze the current consolidation in S&P 500 futures (6600-7000) following all-time highs in October. We break down the conflicting macro forces: the tailwind of Fed balance sheet expansion ($40B/month) versus the headwind of capital rotation within the AI sector and industrial metals. We also review the impact of the recent NFP data and current CME FedWatch expectations for the January 28th meeting. With implied volatility running 15% higher than late summer, we discuss why the upcoming November CPI release is critical for determining the market’s directional bias.

Originally Posted December 17, 2025

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