September Retail Sales Exceed Estimates, Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected

ZINGER KEY POINTS

• September retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the 0.3% forecast and August’s 0.1% growth.
• Semiconductor stocks led market gains, with TSMC surging 9% on strong earnings, boosting futures for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Simultaneously, the latest labor market data saw a decline in jobless claims rose during the week ending Oct. 12.

September Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights

• Retail sales increased by 0.4% in September from the previous month, surpassing both the 0.3% economist consensus, as per TradingEconomics, and the 0.1% growth in August.
• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales decelerated, down to 1.7% compared to 2.2% in August.
• Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales grew 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% increase and the upwardly revised 0.2% growth in August.
• Stripping out gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales climbed by a robust 0.7% in September, a sharp improvement from the upwardly revised 0.3% gain in August.
• Among spending categories, the largest monthly gains were recorded in miscellaneous store retailers, up 4%, and clothing & clothing accessories stores, up 1.5%.
• Conversely, gasoline station, electronics and appliance stores experienced the steepest monthly decline, with sales dropping by 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Key Highlights

• Initial jobless claims came in at 241,000, coming in below a consensus estimate of 260,000 claims, per TradingEconomics, and the prior week’s upwardly revised 260,000 figure.
• The four-week average of claims rose from 231,500 to 236,250.
• Continuing claims, reflecting those still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, rose slightly to 1.867 million, remaining above the 1.87 million expected.
• States hardest hit by the increase in jobless claims include Georgia, where claims rose by 3,100 and Pennsylvania, with a surge of 1,300.
• Surprisingly, Florida recorded a decline of over 3,000 claims during the week, showing the Hurricane Milton had no major disruption on the region’s labor market.

Market Reactions: Stocks Rise Fueled By Chipmakers, Dollar Strengthens On ECB Cut

Stocks rallied in premarket trading on Thursday, driven by a tech-led surge that boosted futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 1%, with semiconductor stocks leading the charge. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company soared nearly 9% on strong earnings, propelling the sector higher.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened by 0.2% following the European Central Bank’s 25-basis-point rate cut, as the ECB signaled that disinflation was “well on track.”

Treasury yields rose in response to stronger-than-expected retail sales and lower-than-predicted jobless claims.

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Originally Posted October 17, 2024 – September Retail Sales Exceed Estimates, Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected