- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted May 4, 2026 at 12:59 pm
Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believe that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed. January’s 587k seasonally adjusted annualized units was the lowest in over three years, or since October 2022, but expectations signal a recovery from those depths. Tomorrow morning’s prints will feature both the February and March periods, as the release schedule was adversely impacted by the longest government shutdown in history a few months ago. For February, there’s a 61% likelihood of a figure exceeding 575k, as well as 85% odds of a result greater than 550k and a 51% probability of a statistic lower than 600k. And for March, a 34% chance exists of a number north of 640k, alongside a 76% prospect of a print higher than 590k and a 96% possibility that the publication won’t exceed 690k. Similarly, the 38 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll carried a March median estimate of 650k as well as minimum and maximum projections of 548k and 700k.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 4, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
ForecastEx Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!