One More From the Road

(Two thoughts for today’s song: a relevant cover by Lynyrd Skynyrd from the album with today’s title, or The Who, with today’s date)

I’ve been on a bit of a weird roll, which is why my posting has been a bit more sporadic.  I typically don’t travel much for business, but last week I attended the Options Industry Conference (my wrap-up here), while this week I’ve been speaking at a MoneyShow conference in Dallas.  I thought that this morning’s events warranted a quick write-up before I headed to the airport.

For the second time this week, I find myself writing about an early selloff.  On Tuesday, we opened lower thanks to a pullback in chip stocks that was triggered by concerns about South Korea adding taxes on the sector and a surprisingly high CPI report.  As is now customary, though, that selloff didn’t stick.  The Korean tax issue was largely debunked, and stock traders decided that the risk of missing a buyable dip outweighed qualms that interest rates were approaching potentially treacherous levels, so we ended that day with only a small decline.  Since then, we had a minor rally and then a more substantial one, with both in danger of being negated today.

Once again, interest rates are the culprit.  On Tuesday, we noted that 2-year Treasuries were flirting with the 4% level and that 30-years had breached 5%.  Stocks seemed unperturbed by those factors, which, to be fair, are not necessarily that worrisome by themselves.  If we could rally with a 4.95% yield, why should things change dramatically if we tick up by 5 or 6 basis points?  Nonetheless, round numbers have an outsized role in investors’ psyches, especially when Wednesday’s 30-year auction was the first since 2007 to feature a rate above 5%.  No market participant should want to be reminded of anything involving a direct comparison to 2007.

This morning, we see a broad rise in global bond yields as inflation concerns once again return to the fore.  There was little, if any, tangible progress reported from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, least of all any indication that those talks could lead to progress in resolving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Those of us in the US awoke to sharply higher bond yields, particularly in the U.K. and Continental Europe.  We found ourselves no longer flirting with the 4% or 5% levels – instead we have undoubtedly pierced them.  As I type this just before 11 AM CDT, the 2-year is at 4.08%, the 30-year is at 5.12%, and for good measure, the 10-year blew through 4.5% to reach 4.58%.  None are particularly friendly for stock valuations, especially with Fed Funds futures now placing a 65% chance for a rate hike by December and over 100% chance for one by March. 

Yet it is difficult to put all the blame on the bond market.  Semiconductors, which have powered the bulk of the current stock market rally, are swooning after a -6.1% move in South Korea’s KOSPI index.  For those of you wondering why I’ve mentioned South Korea twice so far, look no further than DRAM, the relatively new Roundhill Memory ETF.  First listed on April 2^nd, this ETF has attracted over $8 billion of net inflows in roughly six weeks!  (Many of you have participated in this success, with DRAM now appearing among the 10 most active stocks on the IBKR platform. But you should also be aware that IBKR customers are now able to directly access South Korean shares.)

DRAM is a highly concentrated ETF, holding only 7 stocks.  The two largest are Korea’s SK Hynix (000660, KRX) and Samsung Electronics (005930, KRX), though its largest exposure is to Micron Technology (MU) via a combination of shares and swaps.  The immediate popularity of an ETF with roughly 48% weighting in two Korean-listed stocks inextricably ties the KOSPI to SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), NDX (Nasdaq 100), and SPX (S&P 500). 

Put these two factors together – higher yields and profit-taking in semis – and we get a difficult hill for the market to climb.  As I finish this piece, traders don’t seem as willing as usual to try their hand at dip buying today.  We’ll see if the usual attempt arrives later or not.