Notes for a Slow Day

Yes, I came to work today.  Those of us in the US have the rare treat of being among the minority of developed markets that are open today.  Almost all of Europe is closed – I spoke to a US-based reporter for a French wire service who said he was the only business reporter on their global team working today – and former UK colonies like Canada, Australia, and Hong Kong also got to celebrate Boxing Day.  I will be making the most of today with a long visit to one of the business channels this afternoon.  Here’s what I expect to discuss.

Most of what follows should be relatively familiar to regular readers, but I do believe there are fresh points here too.

I currently harbor a contrarian view, something we laid out in depth last week.  I’m a big believer in being fearful when others are greedy — and vice versa — and there is certainly a lack of fear.  That, by the way, is not strictly a comment on the current 14-ish VIX.  The current level of VIX is more a feature of the way it is calculated.  Remember, VIX is the market’s best estimate of volatility over the coming 30 days, and it’s factoring in some dull sessions in the short term.  Also, VIX options price off VIX futures, and those snap back to 17+ in January, so factor that in if you think this is an opportune time to buy calls.

In the short-term, I believe in Santa Claus.  I could easily see a run at 7,000 just because we’re already so close.  There’s a reason “don’t short a dull tape” applies.  There are a lot more people who have incentive to push their holdings to a high year-end close than there are those who have any particular interest in selling before then. 

Looking ahead to 2026, the following factors come to mind:

• Midterms: We’ve had three down years in the last ten.  The last two were in midterm election years.  Three of the last six midterm election years were lower. 
• Length: The current bull market is right about the median length for a secular run.  That means it’s 50/50 about whether it continues.
• New Fed Chair: New Fed Chairs are usually tested early in their terms (Powell, Bernanke, Greenspan got huge tests early.  Yellen had it relatively easy.)
• Reliance upon OpenAI: How will a company with ~$20 billion in current revenues meet ~1 trillion in spending commitments in the coming years?  That requires an absolutely unprecedented level of growth.  And this is not a knock on AI overall.  Looking back at the internet bubble, the internet was everything we’d hoped and then some.  But are we all connecting our Netscape browsers via AOL and searching with Yahoo as we expected in 1999?  The early winners are not always the eventual winners, but yet so much of the valuations placed upon the Mag 7 and the like are dependent upon OpenAI and the like.

To that end, here are some strategies:

• Value over growth.  We saw a bit of that rotation occurring earlier this month, but then we switched back to the momentum plays.  This could get traction in the new year.  One way to play this is through ETFs like VONG and VONV, which divide the Russell 1000 into growth and value
• However, that’s a very arbitrary way to divide the market.  More specifically, look for
  • Low beta
  • High dividends – as long as the company can meet its dividend policy through organic cash flow
• Sectors to favor include:
  • Financials, especially if the yield curve steepens because of inflation fears and/or rate cuts.  The current environment can be a good one for banks thanks to the potential for a steepening yield curve and deregulation.  It also may be better suited than many industries to benefit immediately from artificial intelligence. But I know that at least one prominent strategist called banks the new Magnificent 7.  I think that’s a stretch.  There is a psychological element to the Mag 7 that banks just don’t have.  Frankly, banks lack the “sex appeal” that new technology brings, and I can’t see them capturing the public’s imagination in the same way.  For starters, people love their iPhones; do they love their dealings with their banks?
  • Consumer staples.  Consumer sentiment stinks, but people always need food, toilet paper, clothes and the like.  The stocks are boring, but that can be a plus in uncertain times.