E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5324.75, up 3.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,940.50, 64.50
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are on their backfoot ahead of the opening bell. As I mentioned in my evening video last night, breadth is at the front of my mind as it has been deteriorating significantly. Without NVDA these two major indices would have already eroded much more. Look no further than the E-mini Dow, which has no true NVDA exposure, trading more than 3.5% from its local high last Tuesday.
Yields are another concern, as the U.S. 10-year is now above 4.5%, the highest since the Friday May 3rd Nonfarm Payroll report. Also, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of more than one rate cut this year have dropped to 35.9% from 49.5% one week ago.
Although we are cautious, and I popped on the CNBC Halftime Report to update viewers with a hedge position on Friday, the trend is undoubtedly still bullish. Therefore, we will continue to hold a slight Bullish Bias as detailed below. However, we are watching yesterday’s intraday low in the E-mini S&P of 5296.75 very closely, and continued action below here will likely encourage added selling. If this is the case, a break below last week’s low and, furthermore, major three-star support at 5260-5264 will Neutralize this Bias in the near-term. Additionally, last Thursday’s settlement in the E-mini NQ, the big reversal day post-NVDA earnings, was 18,696.25 and aligns with the previous record high on March 8th and March 21st as major three-star support. We view a violation and close below here, as well as rare major four-star support at 18,620-18,635, as a negative and clear break of the bullish trend.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5304.50-5309.75***, 5316-5317.25**, 5324.75-5326***, 5329.25-5331.25***
Pivot: 5296.75
Support: 5285.25-5289.75***, 5273.50-5275**, 5260-5264***, 5241.50**, 5213.50-5216.75***, 5202.25-5204.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,919-18,946***, 18,977-18,982***, 19,023*, 19,085***, 19,319***
Pivot: 18,819-18,839
Support: 18,775-18,787*, 18,732-18,750**, 18,684-18,709***, 18,620-18,635****, 18,545-18,547**, 18,415-18,485***, 18,336.25-18,348**, 18,266,25-18,293***
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Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 79.83, up 2.11
WTI Crude Oil futures cleared the psychological $80 mark, but can it settle above? A major catalyst to start the week was strong travel demand data from the U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend and from China of late. We also believe geopolitical tailwinds are more relevant than headlines may give credit at the moment. Ultimately, weakness last week came on the heels of the White House announcing a release of Gasoline reserves ahead of the weekend and this was quickly shaken off and further helped create a technical bottom at a critical area of support we have been highlighting.
Still, price action is not in the clear, and we find it a good time to monetize some of this move at least if you’ve been able to capitalize as it is testing major three-star resistance at 81.15-81.28, aligning a gap with the 50% retracement back to the April 12th high. Additionally, the 50-day moving average comes in at 80.84.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 81.15-81.28***, 82.03-82.34***
Pivot: 79.97-80.11***
Support: 79.46-79.61**, 79.01-79.05*, 78.66-78.78***, 77.72-78.05***
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Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2356.5, up 22.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 32.137, up 1.638
Gold and Silver futures had a phenomenal start to the week but that momentum is stalling amid softness in the risk environment, U.S. Dollar strength, and a surge in yields. As I spoke in my evening video, I wanted Silver to get above $33 last night and set a new swing high; implying otherwise would be concerning. Here we are now, and what matters as today unfolds is the aforementioned outside market narratives and a constructive repose to support. Silver traveled the furthest to start the week and is clearly the local leader; it must hold out above the shelf created amid yesterday’s early whipsaw, now our first wave of major three-star support at 31.59-31.67.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2349-2350.5**, 2356.5***, 2363.7-2365.8**, 2372.2-2375***, 2385.3-2390.2***
Pivot: 2345.9
Support: 2339.2-2341.2**, 2333.8-2335.5**, 2322.5-2325.1***, 2304.6-1212.9***
Silver (July)
Resistance: 32.41-32.55***, 32.72-32.75***, 34.12***
Pivot: 32.05-32.19
Support: 31.89**, 31.59-31.67***, 31.37-31.42***, 31.10-31.15***, 30.83-30.92**, 30.50-30.56***, 30.19-30.27****
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Micro Bitcoin (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68,455, down 1,020
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 68,930-69,575***, 70,280-70,435**, 70,840-71,000***, 72,340-72,570
Pivot: 68,250
Support: 67,100-67,585**, 66,280-66,535****, 65,445**, 64,622-64,865***, 61,835-62,801***
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Originally Posted May 29, 2024 – Managing the Risk-Off Tone
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