Layoffs, Claims Remain Contained: Sep. 12, 2024

Unemployment claims increased modestly during the past two weeks with employers appearing to be in a holding pattern as they look for insights into the economy, the outcome of the presidential election and the path of monetary policy. Initial claims of 230,000 for the week ended September 7 exceeded the preceding period’s total by 2,000 and the forecast of 225,000. Similarly, continuing claims of 1.850 million during the seven-day period ended August 31 were up by 5,000 week over week, but arrived in-line with expectations. The four-month moving average for initial claims totaled 230,750, a gain of only 500 from the period ended August 31, while the same calculation for continuing claims declined from 1.855 million as of August 24 to 1.853 million. 

Wholesale Prices Exceed Forecasts

The Producer Price Index (PPI) inched up 0.2% in August from the flat reading of the preceding month, surpassing projections by 10 basis points (bps). On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, the index advanced 1.7%, 10 bps below the forecast of 1.8% and July’s rate of 2.1%. Meanwhile, the month-over-month (m/m) Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, exceeded estimates with its 0.3% rate, 10 bps above the forecast, but its 2.4% y/y result fell below the expectation for 2.5% and climbed marginally from July’s 2.3% level.

While overall goods recorded no m/m change following July’s 0.6% advance, the category’s foods segment climbed 0.1%, and its core version moved north by 0.2%. Energy costs, meanwhile, experienced a 0.9% decline in prices with jet fuel stickers collapsing 10.5%.

The services industry continued to demonstrate sticky inflation with the category jumping 0.4% m/m after dropping 0.3% in July. Its transportation and warehousing component eased by 0.1% but trade services were up 0.6%. Guestroom rentals were noteworthy, with charges climbing 4.8%, but airline tickets dropped 0.8%, a result, in large part, of the industry adding capacity.