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Posted August 8, 2025 at 12:15 pm
This week, we cover Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD, rated ‘Underweight’) and Incyte Corporation (INCY, rated ‘Buy’).
On the day that Trump tariffs take effect, investors will be mindful of their asset allocation across markets. Our Global aggregate view is that the very elevated investor expectations for an ongoing recovery in value creation, at a 23-year high, is trading at too rich a premium.
Global aggregate EVA Momentum is 30bps away from turning positive, having had 20 months of improvement. The market has very high expectations for an ongoing improvement in EVA growth, with Future Growth Reliance moving even higher to the end of July.
We maintained a bullish stance on the Tobacco industry back in January, noting the EVA growth opportunity and an attractive Quality-Value tradeoff. This played out well, with the industry seeing very strong returns on a YTD basis.
On average, Large Cap firms look attractive in the PRVit framework and demonstrate strong levels of Risk-Adjusted Profitability. EVA Fundamentals are currently negative. Consensus, however, expects a turnaround for EVA growth, which remained pressured throughout Q1 2025.
Cheap Value started working in the Large Cap universe in June and continued to work in July as cheap names outperformed expensive names last month. All the Quality factors (Profitability and Risk and their underlying factors) posted a negative spread as investors added to Risk positions and ignored Profitability.
Cheap Value drove the market as our Value factor saw a positive spread in both the Large Cap and Small Cap universes. Quality and all its subfactors were all negative. Investors added to Risk positions as the highest Volatility names outperformed the lowest Volatility names in the Large Cap and Small Cap space.
In Europe, PRVit lost some alpha in July as Quality rolled over in mid-July. Value was up from May through July. In the U.K., PRVit trended down during July after some volatility in May and June. Quality also slipped through most of July, although it did tick up in the final days of the month and into August.
In Asia ex Japan, Quality continued the slide that started in June, although it did tick up in the final four days of the month. Value trended up through most of June and July. PRVit has generally followed Quality’s trajectory, getting a boost from cheap Value working in March through July. In Japan, Quality had worked through the third week of June but then dropped almost as rapidly as Value took off.
In this week’s ‘EVA Asset Allocator: Long Europe, Cautious U.S.’ report, we also highlight that Mexico looks attractive from an EVA Fundamentals perspective. Whilst tariffs, which are currently paused for another 90 days, could play an impact, it was somewhat surprising to see Mexico having had a strong improvement in EVA Momentum (growth) through 2025 so far. EVA Margin (Profitability) is also currently 3.6%, which is only 30bps below the U.S. aggregate.
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Originally Posted August 7, 2025
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