1/ Low Volatility!
2/ Rocks vs. Stocks
3/ Natural Gas Price Volatility
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1/
Low Volatility!
The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index is designed to provide exposure to the 100 least volatile stocks within the S&P 500. It is equally-weighted and rebalances twice a year. Currently, the index is heavily weighted toward defensive Healthcare and Utilities sector stocks. The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index has historically realized less volatility and less severe drawdowns compared to the broad market.
The above chart compares the price index to the equal-weight S&P 500 Index. The ratio is battling to stay above a rising 200-day moving average. If investors become more sensitive to earnings or price volatility, flows may be directed out of cyclical growth and into more stable defensive stocks. In that environment, we’d expect Low Volatility indices to shine.
2/
Rocks vs. Stocks
On an absolute basis, the CRB Commodity Index is nearing its 2022 cycle highs. However relative to US Stocks, the asset class remains in a multi-year downtrend.
The ratio of Commodities vs. Stocks remains in a primary uptrend from the 2020 low – but finds itself in a secondary downtrend from the June 2022 high. For the time being, the trend is in favor of Commodities > Stocks.
3/
Natural Gas Price Volatility
Speaking of commodities, this next chart highlights the recent volatility found in Natural Gas prices. Over the last 60-days, Natural Gas futures prices have moved ~$0.25 per day on average. That’s a big percentage swing for a contract priced at ~$4. With increased volatility, comes the increased likelihood for whipsaws to occur. This was certainly the case for Natural Gas e.g. many failed breakouts/breakdowns in recent years, making it a difficult environment for traditional trend followers.
Despite the volatility, Natural gas finds itself trading above an upward sloping 200-day average and above the October 2023 price highs. The technical evidence is in favor of the bulls.
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Originally posted 19th February 2025
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