- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted May 19, 2026 at 9:15 am
Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only.
The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields broke out of multi-decade bottoms in 2022. The 10-year is now coiling into a wedge that will tell you everything about where stocks go next.
By All Star Charts
________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
________________________________________________________________________
Markets do not move in isolation.
Whatever you see in the S&P 500, in the Nasdaq, in your favorite small-cap name, it is downstream of something else. Most of the time, that something else is the bond market.
This relationship is called intermarket analysis, and the bond-to-equity link is the most consistent one in the book.
Right now, the bond market is at an inflection point that most equity traders are not paying attention to.
The Structural Shift
Step back from the day-to-day.
Both yields formed massive multi-year bottoms through 2020 and into 2021. Both broke out above long-term resistance in 2022. That breakout is intact, and the trend in rates is still up.
What the 30-Year Is Telling Us
The 30-year yield (TYX) has tested 5.18% multiple times. Each test has been rejected.
Yields are holding in the higher range and coiling just beneath the level, indicating the chart is consolidating into a tighter band while building potential energy for the eventual resolution.
What the 10-Year Is Telling Us
The 10-year yield (TNX) is tightening into a coil pattern.
A wedge forms when highs and lows compress toward a single point. The two trend lines converge until the price has to break out in one direction. The longer the coil, the sharper the resolution tends to be.
We’re not in the business of predicting which way a coil resolves before it does. But we can tell you what to watch for.
Why This Matters for Stocks
If the 10-year breaks higher out of its current range, yields are heading meaningfully above 5%. That is a significant repricing of the cost of capital.
Discount rates work like this. Future earnings are worth less today when rates are higher. A stock priced at 25 times earnings when the 10-year is at 4% does not deserve the same multiple when the 10-year is at 5.5%.
The math forces lower multiples. The equity market would have to absorb that.
What to Watch Next
Mark the levels.
5.18% on the 30-year is the ceiling that has held repeatedly. A weekly close above it on volume would signal that the next leg has started.
The 10-year wedge resolution is the second signal. Watch the upper trendline.
We are not telling you to short stocks today. We are telling you what to watch.
The bond market is the upstream signal. Equities follow.
Higher for longer is no longer a narrative. It is what the chart shows.
Today at 4:30 PM ET, our Chief Market Strategist Steve Strazza is hosting the Fast Money Masterclass. It is a live session on the strategy he uses to spot fast-moving setups on the most liquid names in the market before the breakout fires.
In the last 30 days, 14 of our 20 short-term trade alerts doubled. Half of those doubled in a single day.
→ MSTR $152.50 Call (4/24 exp): 2x in 1 day, then +1,644% 6 days later
→ NVDA $190 Call (4/24 exp): 2x in 1 day, then +1,042% 14 days later
→ IGV $80 Call (4/24 exp): 2x in 1 day, then +663% 8 days later
A $10,000 portfolio allocating $1,000 to each of those 20 trades on April 6 would be at $30,417 today. 204% in under 30 days.
Save your seat: Fast Money Masterclass today at 4:30 pm ET.
—
Originally posted 18th May 2026
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Investopedia.com: The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. While we believe the information provided herein is reliable, we do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The views and strategies described on our content may not be suitable for all investors. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, all comments, opinions and analyses contained within our content are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. This information is intended for US residents only.
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Investopedia and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Investopedia and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Municipal Bonds are only available from Interactive Brokers for IBKR LLC, IBKR Canada, IBKR Hong Kong, IBKR Australia and IBKR Singapore entities.
Related Articles
Please let me know if you’re looking for a article author for your blog.
You have some really good articles and I feel I would be a good asset.
If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d love to write some content for your blog
in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an e-mail if interested.
Regards!