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Posted June 10, 2026 at 9:45 am
Scotiabank estimates US-bound exports fell to 69% in April, while Canada’s effective tariff hit stayed around 2.9% thanks to CUSMA exemptions.
Canada is leaning a little less on the US to sell its goods: Scotiabank estimates the US took 69% of Canadian exports in April, down from a 76% average in 2024, even as the overall tariff hit stayed around 2.9% thanks to CUSMA exemptions.
The shift doesn’t mean the US stopped buying Canadian products. It mostly reflects faster growth in shipments to other destinations, with Scotiabank noting exports to non-US markets were 48.3% higher than in 2024, helped in part by outsized gold exports overseas. On tariffs, the headline picture still looks mild: because most cross-border trade qualifies for duty-free treatment under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), Scotiabank puts Canada’s “effective tariff rate” – basically the average hit across all exports – at about 2.9%. But that average masks concentration: the share of Canadian goods entering the US that face tariffs has inched up, and sector-specific levies on metals like steel, aluminum, and copper can squeeze margins by raising costs through the supply chain. Scotiabank says tweaks taking effect June 1st should trim that burden a bit through the end of 2027, but they don’t remove the underlying constraint.
For markets: Scotiabank’s 69% figure can still leave metals exporters doing the heavy lifting.
A lower US export share can make Canada’s top-line data look less sensitive to a US slowdown, but the composition matters. If diversification is driven by gold shipments, that can be less supportive for broad corporate earnings and employment than a similar rise in manufactured exports, since gold flows can be volatile and don’t pull as many domestic suppliers along. At the same time, a low average tariff rate can be misleading for investors watching specific industries. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper don’t spread evenly across the economy; they land on particular producers and downstream customers, where higher input costs can pinch profits and change who stays competitive. The result: Canada’s macro backdrop can look steadier even while metals-linked sectors diverge sharply from the national “tariff hit” headline.
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Originally Posted June 10, 2026 – Canada’s US Trade Dependence Is Quietly Easing
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