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Posted November 28, 2025 at 12:51 pm
Trading volumes were lighter than usual on ForecastEx this Thanksgiving, as expected, but the 1.7 million contracts exchanged still signaled heavy engagement for a holiday. Indeed, while many markets were closed, the 24/7 availability on ForecastEx allowed participants to express their views on the platform. Some of the dominant themes that investors engaged with yesterday were the daily weather in major US cities, the December Fed decision and whether the Democratic Party will win majority control in the House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
Daily Weather Engagement Continues Soaring
Daily contracts asking whether the highest temperature in major US cities will exceed a specific Fahrenheit level have been surging in popularity. The engagement throughout cities has been variable, however, as some days features heavy trading in New York City or Miami, but today’s leaders so far are Los Angeles and Denver. Indeed, over 100k contracts have been exchanged across each of those two cities with plenty of hours to go for the November 28th expiration.
Fed Cut Trades at 90% On Thanksgiving
Odds that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting traded at a new high of 90% on Thanksgiving. Enthusiasm has been robust, as the probability hasn’t been below 80% since Monday, supported by several voting members voicing the need for additional monetary policy accommodation in light of decelerating labor conditions. The “Yes” contract has fallen modestly; however, it’s now at 85% with approximately 240k open contracts tied to next month’s decision.
Democrats Hold on To House Lead
The Democratic Party is holding on to its strong lead in the 2026 House race that signals a greater chance that it will win majority control in Congress’s lower chamber. The probability was just around 58% before November 4th’s election day when governorships in Virgina and New Jersey, the mayorship in New York City and the passage of Proposition 50 in California were swept by Democrats, raising the odds that the party’s candidates will perform well in the 2026 midterms. The likelihood of a Democrat flip sits at 71% at the moment, with approximately 467k contracts tied to the event.
Source for images: ForecastEx
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Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Este es un comentario sobre las condiciones económicas, políticas y/o de mercado dentro del significado del Reglamento 1.71 de la CFTC, y no está destinado a proporcionar información suficiente para tomar una decisión sobre la ejecución de una transacción de derivados.
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