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US Yields Climb As Middle East Tensions Affect Markets

US Yields Climb As Middle East Tensions Affect Markets

Posted June 13, 2025 at 10:45 am

Finimize Newsroom
Finimize

What’s going on here?

US Treasury yields have risen as Israeli military actions in Iran push oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns.

What does this mean?

The strikes on Iranian sites have shaken global markets, boosting oil prices and reigniting inflation worries. Typically, US Treasuries would be a safe haven, but a notable shift away from US debt has occurred. Higher oil prices could flatten the yield curve, with short-term yields rising significantly. The 10-year note moved to 4.405% and the 30-year bond to 4.89%, contrasting previous trends when yields fell amid positive US-China talks and weaker US jobs data.

Why should I care?

For markets: Heightened tensions and economic signals.

Middle East conflict has driven oil prices up, potentially pressuring stocks and commodities. Investors are watching the US yield curve, focusing on short-term yields. The 44.9 basis point spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries offers economic insights.

The bigger picture: Inflation re-enters the conversation.

Consumer sentiment is up, but inflation expectations of around 2.3% per year over the next decade remain key. While geopolitical tensions take center stage, economic indicators and yields provide a broader view of market and policy expectations.

Originally Posted June 13, 2025 – US Yields Climb As Middle East Tensions Affect Markets

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