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Posted October 26, 2026 at 12:55 pm
On the West Coast, Democrat Xavier Becerra has a 95% chance of winning the California gubernatorial race, according to Interactive Brokers IBKR Prediction Markets. His Republican party opponent, Steve Hilton, carries a probability near zero. Polling, however, shows a smaller gap with Becerra having support of 60% of likely voters. Like many Democrats, Becerra, a former California attorney general, US secretary of health and human services and a 12-term member of the US House of Representatives, is campaigning against recent increases in the cost of living and restrictive immigration policies. He faces accusations from Hilton of ideological extremism.
September new home sales are expected to post a decline from August’s 684k seasonally adjusted annualized units, as elevated mortgage rates and lofty valuations continue to challenge affordability conditions. Indeed, the IBKR Prediction Markets at 615k, 640k, 665k and 690k within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are going for $0.79, $0.59, $0.29 and $0.12, against the backdrop of the consensus economist estimate standing at 650k in the monthly Reuters poll of 41 forecasters. But this indicator is volatile and has the potential to feature sharper swings on a relative basis, and in consideration of those historical tendencies, the minimum and maximum projection in the aforementioned survey are wide apart, at 610k and 700k.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 26, 2026.
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Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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