Another Morning for the “Could Be Much Worse” File

As I type this, major stock indices are well off their opening lows.  They’re not higher, at least not yet, but the S&P 500 (SPX) has recovered about half its early losses by 11AM EDT.  The initial losses had notably overt causes – a solid break below SPX’s 200-day moving average, higher rates thanks to uncooperative central banks, and higher energy prices stemming from a widening of the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.  Once again, though, we saw bids return to equities once the bad news began to abate. 

While those of us in North America were rubbing the sleep from our eyes, European investors had plenty of reasons for gloom.  Brent crude futures spiked higher after Iran attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy complex.  WTI futures barely budged, however, which meant that the spread between the two contracts, which we highlighted yesterday as being near multi-year highs, widened even further.

5-Years, Daily WTI – Brent Futures Spread (white), with 30-day Moving Average (green)

Source: Bloomberg

Yet as the morning wore on, Brent futures came well off their early highs:

1-Week, April WTI Futures (red/green 5-minute candles), May Brent Futures (blue line)

Source: Interactive Brokers

Meanwhile, stocks ended yesterday in a relatively tenuous technical situation, thanks to a poorly received post-FOMC press conference from Chair Powell.  “Goldilocks in a Suit” was nowhere to be found.  A late bout of selling left SPX perched on its 200-day moving average around 6620, a level that was nearly tested late Friday and held as we bounced on Monday and Tuesday.  Today, we broke through during the pre-market and have yet to retest it during the regular session.  While we have remained above the November low of 6522 so far today, the technical picture has weakened considerably.  The 50-day moving average, which acted as trendline support late last year and early this year, has turned decidedly lower; the 100-day moving average, which acted as recent support and then resistance, has just begun a downturn of its own.  The series of lower highs and lower lows since late February indicates that selling rallies has been more profitable than buying dips recently.

SPX Index, 6-Month Daily Candles with 50-day (top line), 100-day (middle line), 200-day (bottom line) Moving Average

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Source: Interactive Brokers

Last week, we noted that rate cut expectations for 2026 had become rather uncertain.  By Tuesday, Fed Funds futures were once again pricing in a December rate cut.  Maybe it was a bit of St. Patrick’s Day enthusiasm, but Powell’s comments caused them to shrink once again.  By the end of yesterday’s trading, there was less than a 60% chance of a cut, and those have all but evaporated this morning.  Both the ForecastEx prediction market and CME FedWatch now show a roughly 17% probability for a cut this year.  The Summary of Economic Projections, (aka “SEP” or “dot plot”) continued to imply a median estimate of one rate cut this year, but more “dots” moved toward no change than before.  Traders were also taken by surprise when only one member of the FOMC – the ever-reliable Dr. Miran – dissented against holding rates steady.  Governor Waller, who had previously advocated for lower rates, joined the majority and presumably was one of the raised dots.

If Powell and the FOMC added a bit of murk to short-term rate forecasts, this morning’s rate decisions from the Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) added a bit of unpleasant clarity.  Both issued hawkish statements and commentary, raising concerns about rate hikes to combat inflation amidst rising energy prices.  Note the sharp rises in 2-year rates over the past month – and especially today – in the US, Germany, and especially the UK in the chart below:

6-Month Chart of 2-Year Benchmark Yields in the UK (white/blue candles), US (blue line), Germany (purple line)

Source: Bloomberg

Against the backdrop of a technical breakdown in stocks (though above another support level), a jump in crude prices (which are off their intraday highs), and sharply higher global short-term rates (though worse abroad than in the US), we can once again say that the reaction in US stocks certainly “could be worse.”