Trump UN Speech Neutralizes Iran Deal Hopes: Sept. 22, 2026

Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal were neutralized at the UNGA this morning after President Trump defended the war effort while pleading for other nations to join Washington in completely isolating Tehran economically. The rigid posture reversed earlier progress in lowering crude oil prices and yields, as optimism for an incremental rebound of traffic along the Strait of Hormuz was curbed by the White House expressing its intensions to keep the pressure on its Middle East adversary. The Treasury curve is now climbing in bear-steepening fashion led by duration, as fixed-income observers consider loftier inflation expectations and ongoing elevated military expenditures as headwinds to credit assets. Stocks are paring opening gains too, although 9 of the 11 principal sectors are advancing amidst tech shares leading in response to enthusiasm resulting from the success of Meta’s launch of its Muse agent and China agreeing with US leadership in disregarding industry calls for AI regulation, which bodes positively for aggregate corporate earnings and overall growth. Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices declining, costs of volatility protection instruments are falling, indicating a general lack of nervousness on Wall Street. Elsewhere, prediction markets are catching bids and heavier domestic borrowing costs are pushing up the greenback, which is weighing on non-energy commodities ex copper and cryptocurrencies.

Stocks Awaiting Geopolitical Relief Before New Records

Stocks are within striking distance of fresh records; however, some geopolitical relief could sink both borrowing costs and fuel charges, which would certainly help the benchmarks clear all-time high hurdles. Investors may receive just that in the next few hours, if a potential meeting between President Trump and his Iranian counterpart goes well at the United Nations, although ongoing disagreements are likely to limit market gains and potentially generate meaningful losses. Treasuries, in particular, continue to challenge risk appetites on Wall Street, as a 10-year yield remaining close to 5% dents demand for cyclical shares and anything speculative, with the tech sector being spared by the favorable news regarding China rejecting AI regulation, which will keep the technology sector’s buoyant earnings trajectory intact. But crypto is a victim to nosebleed yields, with the recent reversals from eight-month highs on Bitcoin and Ethereum emblematic of how rising rates can derail enthusiasm for non-interest-bearing securities with unknown futures. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian barrels making their way to export destinations are helping to subdue energy prices, nonetheless, more is needed for West Texas Intermediate to sustainably trade below $80, which would drive overall US inflation back to a 2-handle by December.

International Roundup

UK Industrial Gauge Improves

The extent to which total order books for UK industry lingered below the normal level was the smallest since July 2023, according to the Industrial Trends Survey from the Confederation of Business Industry. After hitting a level of -25% last month, orders improved with the gap declining to -9%, a much stronger result than the economist consensus estimate for -33%. The score is determined by calculating the net balance of respondents who reported that orders were higher and those that said orders were lower than the normal level. The survey’s gauge of respondents’ view of future selling price inflation, furthermore, eased from net balance of 22% in August to 12% this month. Regarding the three months to September, output volumes fell at the slowest pace since July 2025. Among 17 subsectors, 12 experienced weaker results with worst performance occurring in following categories:

• Metal products,
• Food, drink and tobacco
• Electronic engineering

Conversely, output growth was led by the motor vehicles and transport equipment subsector. Mechanical engineering and chemicals subsectors were second and third strongest.

Consumer Confidence Weakens in the Euro Area

Consumer confidence among countries that use the euro currency fell from -15.5 in August to -16.5 this month, a worse reading than the economist consensus estimate of -16, according to the European Commission’s Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator.The decline comes after four consecutive months of improvement.