Neutral Warsh, Sinking Yields, Cheaper Oil, Not Enough To Offset Rising AI Pessimism: Oct. 16, 2026

The market’s ability to offset rising AI pessimism is being tested as broad equity gains across 9 of the 11 principal sectors are not enough to keep the major US benchmarks positive today. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh brought relief to Treasuries by issuing neutral messaging at the IMFs annual meeting in Bangkok, which significantly dropped the chances of an October hike from roughly 28% to around 12% this morning. Despite the chief communicating that the central bank is committed to quelling inflationary pressures, his balanced tone signaled an increasingly patient, gradual approach, rather than a posture consistent with an aggressive hiking cycle, effectively echoing similar comments from other voting officials. Longer-end rates benefited, too, although the borrowing cost declines are modest. The easing yields are also a reaction to sinking oil prices in response to expectations of supply improvements via the release of 100 million barrels from G7 strategic sovereign reserves and a rebound in Middle East exports. Conversely, a big beat on industrial production featuring the strongest acceleration in 5 months challenged fixed-income assets via manufacturing buoyancy signaling robust growth. Elsewhere, the greenback and cryptocurrencies are depreciating, non-energy commodities are climbing, volatility protection instruments are flat and prediction markets are catching bids.

Industrial Production Growth Hits 4-Year High

The pace of industrial production expansion accelerated at its fastest rate since April last month amidst broad-based progress across segments. The September headline featured growth of 0.7% month over month (m/m) and 2.2% year over year (y/y), well above the 0.4% and 1.8% anticipated and August’s 0.1% and 1.6% lifts. Utilities, mining and manufacturing saw output rise 3.5%, 0.3% and 0.2% m/m, and under the hood, the construction, nonindustrial supplies, materials and consumer goods major market groups experienced m/m gains of 1%, 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.7%. Elsewhere, the final products segment increased 0.5% while business equipment was flat.

Earnings To Quell AI Anxieties Next Week

We’ll kick into higher gear next week regarding corporate earnings and AI enthusiasm could recover if businesses announce positive results and provide encouraging commentary. The most significant driver of recent economic growth and stock market gains has been AI, and throughout this ferocious expansion there have been periods where investor doubts about overspending, heavy debt loads, valuations, circular financing dynamics and Chinese competition have weighed on share values and credit reliability; however, sentiment is poised to turn as the favorable seasonal effects of the fourth quarter may reverse the existing slump. Another key consideration is that fuel prices are way over their skis when you look at fundamentals, and in light of the US and Iran appearing to be taking a break from hostilities, the geopolitical premium is far too elevated against a backdrop of little appetite for more fighting. Meanwhile, energy exports from the troubled Middle East are continuing to rebound and strategic reserves are also helping to curb the pain, providing a path for much cheaper crude costs in the coming weeks that could result in plunging yields and a restoration of animal spirits on Wall Street and for tech equities in particular, an area that has been badly beaten in the past few sessions. 

International Roundup

AI Demand Keeps Singapore Exporters Busy

Singapore’s shipments of non-oil goods to foreign lands climbed 68.4% y/y in September, with an increase in exports of ships and boats helping to offset the impact of decelerating growth for electronics. The trade activity accelerated from the 46.1% y/y growth in August and surpassed the economist consensus estimate of 33.8%, according to Enterprise Singapore. Within the September export data, electronics were up 107% y/y after climbing 131.6% in the preceding month. The global rush to expand AI services helped to stoke demand for the city-state’s high-tech products, according to Enterprise Singapore. A jump in demand for Singapore’s ship structures and boats, conversely, helped push exports of non-electronics up by 54.2% y/y, a considerable acceleration from 11.9% in August. Countries that experienced the largest increases in imports from Singapore and the extent of the y/y growth were as follows:

• Hong Kong, 112.1%
• Taiwan, 96.9%
• South Korea, 96%       
• US, 73.2%
• Malaysia, 39.6%

Canada Building Permits Bounce Back

The value of building projects issued permits by Canada in August was up 8.8% m/m, a sharp reversal from the 17.3% drop in July. The metric also climbed 15.8 y/y. In a related matter, the number of permits issued in August ascended by 8.6% m/m and 12.4% y/y. The multifamily component was the strongest in August with permits increasing 23.8%. Permitting of single-family home projects was fairly steady, but the non-residential segment sank 0.6%.