Stocks Rebound After Back-to-Back Losses on Ceasefire Extension, Upbeat Earnings: April 22, 2026

Stocks are rebounding after suffering from the first back-to-back losses of the month with President Trump’s ceasefire extension and upbeat earnings reports driving continued equity upside. The Nasdaq 100 reached a fresh record amidst broad sector participation, with only real estate and retail in the red so far this session. The lift in investor sentiment is occurring despite elevated Strait of Hormuz tensions, with attacks continuing on the critical waterway as Washington and Tehran grapple for control of the critical passage while negotiations presumably take place. In consideration of the geopolitical stress, WTI is trading at its loftiest level this week of $93.20, as a prolonged halt has raised energy supply worries and interest rates are climbing, albeit modestly, in response. Elsewhere, animal spirits are thriving, with all commodity majors, cryptocurrencies and prediction markets catching strong bids. Still, safe havens are also being sought with the greenback, gold, and silver appreciating while volatility protection instruments are relatively unchanged.

Hormuz Bottleneck Poses Risk to Q2 Earnings

Ongoing tension along the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk to corporate earnings in the present and subsequent quarters, which is especially important since the cyclical and rate-sensitive areas of the market are rallying strongly into what very quickly has become more elevated valuations. Despite President Trump’s ceasefire extension, a return to normalcy of Persian Gulf energy traffic remains unclear and every additional day of closure worsens the global economic outlook. Meanwhile, higher input costs, heavy interest rates and potentially weaker consumer spending buoyancy resulting from this conflict are geared to compress profit margins and reduce expected future equity gains. For now, however, investors are optimistic that prospects of a short-term disruption amidst a commander in chief who is tilting increasingly towards deal mode might imply that the worst is already behind us.

International Roundup

UK Inflation Intensifies

Inflation in the UK strengthened during March with automobile fuel prices climbing at the fastest rate since January 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.3% year over year (y/y), which matched the economist consensus estimate but was more severe than the 3% gain in February. On a month-over-month (m/m) basis, the gauge rose 0.7%, slightly hotter than both the economist estimate of 0.6% and February’s 0.4% ascent.

When excluding items with more volatile prices, the resulting Core CPI was slightly more benign, climbing 3.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m after jumping 3.2% and 0.6% in February. The March results fell beneath expectations for y/y and m/m prints of 3.2% and 0.5%. Shelter expenses were also considerable with the CPIH, which includes owner occupiers’ housing costs, accelerating from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% and 0.3% m/m to 0.6%. Within the m/m CPIH print, the transport category climbed 2.4% as rising fuel costs pushed the rate up from only 0.1% in February. All categories became more expensive with the following groups and the extent of their changes experiencing the largest increases:

• Restaurants and hotels, 0.7%
• Clothing and footwear, 0.6%
• Housing and household services, 0.4%
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 0.3%
• Communication, 0.3%
• Health, 0.3%

UK Businesses Hit with Higher Input Costs

Businesses in the UK experienced a leap in expenses for input items in March but only made marginal increases in their selling prices, according to the Producer Price Index. After climbing 0.9% m/m and 0.7% y/y in February, input prices jumped 4.4% and 5.4% during the third month of 2026. The m/m result, furthermore, was significantly higher than the economist consensus estimate of 2.8%. The lofty y/y reading was driven, in large part, by crude oil selling for 58.3% more than in the year-ago period with the US-Iran war causing a 58.8% m/m rise in March. Metals and non-metallic mineral products were also inflationary. The category recorded a 3.5% y/y gain because businesses increased their purchases of precious materials from more expensive domestic sources. The beverages and tobacco classification, furthermore, was up 3.7% y/y. Conversely, the fuel category, which includes coal, electricity and gas, declined 4.8% y/y. Also in March, gate prices were up 2.6% y/y and 0.9% m/m after February’s 1.8% y/y gain and 0.5% m/m drop. The m/m result narrowly missed the economist consensus estimate for a 1% climb. Of the gauge’s 10 product groups, nine became more expensive y/y with 14.6% escalation of stickers for coke and refined petroleum products leading. Manufacturing, furthermore, became 2.7% more expensive.

Japan Trade Surplus Grew Less than Expected

Japan’s trade surplus climbed from 44.3 billion yen in February to 666.7 billion yen last month but missed expectations for the value of exports to exceed imports by 1.1 trillion yen. Both exports and imports were above estimates. The country’s shipments abroad climbed 11.7% y/y, exceeding the estimate by 0.70 percentage points and nearly tripling from February 4% growth rate. The strong result was driven by a resurgence in demand for electronics, non-ferrous metals, and vehicles. Additionally, a weakening yen was a tailwind to pitching products to foreign customers. Imports, meanwhile, climbed 10.9%, a slightly slower acceleration from February when the country’s acceptance of foreign products was up 10.3% y/y. Economists anticipated a March y/y gain of 7.1%. In this metric, the weakening yen caused products from abroad to become more expensive.

Another Consumer Confidence Decline in Europe

After dropping to -16.4 in March, the European Union Consumer Confidence Index fell to -20.6 this month, according to a preliminary print from the Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission. Economists anticipated a decline to -18. The result is substantially below the metric’s long-term average of -10 and the lowest reading since December 2022’s -20.9 level.